Calgary Housing Market Mid-2026: What CREB's Chief Economist Told Our Team

This week our entire team sat down for 90 minutes with CREB's chief economist, Ann-Marie Lurie. This was not a monthly market report. It went deeper - migration patterns, employment data, and what is actually driving the divergence in this market. I took notes so you do not have to sit through the long version.

The short version: Calgary's housing market in mid-2026 is balanced overall but split sharply by property type. Detached homes sit at 2.4 months of supply with stable prices, while apartments sit at 4.8 months of supply with prices down 9% year over year. Employment is up 4.2% and Alberta still leads the country in population and GDP growth.

Interest Rates: Stop Waiting for the Big Cut

The short answer from someone who studies this full time: rates are expected to stay flat through 2026. Inflation exists, but it is concentrated in energy and is not broadening into food and transport. Modest changes could come in 2027, but the dramatic rate-cut scenario many buyers have been holding out for is not the base case.

What this means for you: if you have been waiting for rates to drop before buying, the data suggests you may be waiting for something that is not coming on the timeline you hoped for.

There Is No "Canadian Housing Market"

One slide put everything in context. Calgary sales are running about 6% below the 10-year average. Toronto is 41% below. Vancouver is 34% below. Calgary employment is up 4.2% year to date while Toronto and Vancouver are both negative.

That is the whole story in two numbers. When someone tells you the Canadian housing market is struggling, nod politely - then remember Calgary is a very different conversation. If you are reading this from Ontario or BC, this matters for you specifically.

Demand Slowed More Than Forecast - But Read the Fine Print

The economist was refreshingly honest here: demand has slowed more than CREB forecast. The original 2026 call was sales down about 2%. Year to date through May, Calgary is tracking at minus 12%.

But the headline buries the real story:

• Detached and semi-detached sales: down about 4%
• Apartment sales: down about 28%

The slowdown is not evenly distributed. Not even close. Different product types are living completely different stories, and that theme runs through everything below.

Migration: From Extraordinary Back to Strong

Why did demand slow? In 2024, Alberta received just under 130,000 international migrants. In 2025, just over 19,000 - an 85% drop in one year. Interprovincial migration also fell about 41%.

Here is the important part: Alberta still leads the entire country in population growth at 1.2% in 2025, while Canada as a whole was slightly negative. We did not stop growing. We went from extraordinary back to strong - a very different problem than the one Toronto and Vancouver are dealing with.

New Construction: The Supply Wave Is Still Landing

Calgary ran three consecutive years of record housing starts, and much of what was started two or three years ago is finishing right as demand cooled. Right now there are roughly 16,000 apartment units under construction in the city, about 65% of them purpose-built rentals, with another 14,000 pre-construction units that have not broken ground.

Overall starts are down 33% year to date - the industry is pumping the brakes - but the pipeline is still delivering. If you are buying new construction, particularly in the north or northeast, you have real negotiating power right now. If you are selling resale in those same areas, you are competing against builders with deep pockets, and you need to price accordingly.

Condo Investors: Time for Honest Math

Vacancy rates are rising - about 6% in the northwest and 5.4% in the inner city - while nearly 6,500 condos and almost 11,000 rental units are under construction at the same time. Net migration for 2026 is forecast at just over 14,000 people. You do not need an economics degree to see the math.

Rents are softening, and institutional landlords are offering incentives that reduce net rents without changing the headline number. The citywide condo benchmark sits just over $300,000, down 9% year over year, with the full-year forecast at minus 3.5%. The economist was direct: a significant market shift for condos is not expected in 2026 or 2027 given the structural oversupply.

If you are buying a condo to live in, you have real leverage and prices are more accessible than they have been in years. If you are buying as an investment, stress test your numbers: net rent after vacancy, fees, mortgage costs, and your competition from institutional landlords with lower cost structures. Not a "never buy a condo" message - a "go in with eyes open" message.

Where the Market Actually Sits by Property Type

• Detached: 2.4 months of supply - balanced
• Semi-detached: 2.7 months - balanced, one of the stronger segments
• Row homes: 3.3 months - more supply building, manageable
• Apartments: 4.8 months - a buyer's market

Overall price growth for 2026 is forecast at minus 1%. Year to date the city is at minus 1.9% - almost entirely driven by the apartment segment dragging the average down.

Location Matters More Than the Citywide Number

The citywide detached benchmark sat just over $748,000 in May. But district and price band matter far more than that number. In the northeast, the $700,000 to $800,000 band is carrying 12 months of supply. In the south, the same band sits at 2.1 months. Same city, completely different buying environment.

Row homes tell the same story: the northeast row segment near $300,000 is sitting at nearly 20 months of supply - essentially stalled - while the south and southeast row market is holding up considerably better. Communities like Mahogany, Auburn Bay, and Cranston live in a much tighter market than the citywide averages suggest.

Satellite Communities: A Quick Pass

• Airdrie: down 5.6%, about 3.2 months of supply - feeling new-construction competition
• Cochrane: down 4.5%, 3.1 months - similar story
• Chestermere: the softest satellite market at 5.3 months of supply
• Okotoks: one of the tightest markets in the region at 2.3 months, down less than 1%
• Strathmore and High River: modest price growth and genuine value relative to Calgary proper
• Rural Rocky View County: up 4.1% - the acreage and luxury market is doing its own thing

The Foundation: Jobs and GDP

Calgary employment is up 4.2% year to date. Unemployment sits at 7%, which sounds concerning until you understand why: people are moving here without pre-secured jobs, registering as job seekers, and finding work. That is a completely different dynamic from 2015-2017, when unemployment rose because the energy sector was shedding jobs. One is a sign of confidence. The other is not.

Job growth is broad-based - healthcare and social assistance leading, with public administration, manufacturing, and professional services all positive. Construction is down, which makes sense given the pullback in starts. The growing sectors tend to pay well, and higher-paying jobs buy detached homes - part of why detached is holding up better than everything else. Alberta is expected to lead the country in real GDP growth in both 2025 and 2026.

The risks are real too: oil price volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, potential recession, and a possible separation referendum that is genuinely hard to model. These are not reasons to panic - they are reasons to make decisions with a clear head rather than pure optimism.

What This Means for You

Buying detached: balanced territory, moderate price softness, reasonable selection. You have time to think, inspect, and negotiate - in 2022 you often could not even inspect. In context, this is a good place to be a buyer.

Selling detached: price it right and it moves. Price it like 2024 and it sits. The buyers are there - the leverage has shifted slightly, and they know it.

Condos and apartments: buyers have real leverage, sellers need to be realistic, and investors need honest numbers, not optimistic ones.

Watching from Ontario or BC: employment here is up over 4% while it is negative where you are, Alberta has no land transfer tax, and you can still buy a detached home in a strong family community for under $600,000. I made this exact move myself in 2006.

The data is the data. I am just the guy who was in the room this week and thought you deserved to hear it straight. If any of this raises questions about your situation - buying, selling, investing, or timing - call or text me at 587-325-2992.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is the Calgary housing market crashing in 2026?

A: No. Calgary sales are about 6% below the 10-year average, compared to Toronto at 41% below and Vancouver at 34% below. Prices citywide are down about 1.9% year to date, driven almost entirely by the apartment segment. Detached home prices remain essentially stable, and employment is up 4.2%.

Q: Should I wait for interest rates to drop before buying in Calgary?

A: Based on CREB's mid-2026 outlook, rates are expected to stay flat through 2026 with only modest changes possible in 2027. The dramatic rate-cut scenario many buyers hoped for is not the base case, so waiting for it may mean waiting for something that is not coming on your timeline.

Q: Is now a good time to buy a condo in Calgary?

A: If you are buying to live in it, you have real leverage - the condo benchmark is just over $300,000, down 9% year over year, and supply is heavy. If you are buying as an investment, run honest numbers on net rent, vacancy, and fees, because rents are softening and thousands of new rental units are still arriving through 2027.

Q: Which Calgary areas are holding up best in 2026?

A: The south and southeast are notably tighter than the citywide numbers. The $700,000 to $800,000 detached band sits at just 2.1 months of supply in the south versus 12 months in the northeast. Among satellite towns, Okotoks is one of the tightest markets in the region at 2.3 months of supply.

Q: Is Calgary still a good place to move from Ontario or BC in 2026?

A: The fundamentals favour it: Calgary employment is up 4.2% while Toronto and Vancouver are negative, Alberta leads the country in population and GDP growth, there is no land transfer tax, and detached homes in strong family communities are still available under $600,000.

Q: How does Derek J. Bryer get this level of market detail?

A: Derek is part of the Justin Havre Real Estate Team, whose standing arranges private briefings like this 90-minute session with CREB's chief economist. Combined with his 20+ years in residential construction, he translates economist-level data into practical guidance for Calgary buyers and sellers.

Q: What are the biggest risks to the Calgary market right now?

A: The briefing flagged oil price volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, potential recession, and a possible separation referendum as factors that could dampen investment and housing confidence. None are reasons to panic - they are reasons to decide with a clear head.

About Derek J. Bryer

Derek J. Bryer is a licensed Calgary Real Estate Advisor (RECA #LIC-00639946) with the Justin Havre Real Estate Team at eXp Realty - the #1 eXp Realty team in Canada and the world (2023). He brings over 20 years of residential construction experience, a track record as a top-3 sales representative in North American roofing, and the firsthand perspective of someone who relocated from Ontario to Calgary in 2006 and built his life here - including 30+ countries of travel with his late partner Neola, whose memory drives everything he builds.

Derek specializes in move-up buyers, first-time buyers, out-of-province relocators, new construction, hail and insurance recovery, and probate real estate across SW, S, and SE Calgary and surrounding communities.

Call or text: 587-325-2992
derekjbryer.ca
Justin Havre Real Estate Team | eXp Realty | RECA #LIC-00639946

Whether you're buying your first home, navigating hail damage before a sale, or making the move from Ontario - Derek brings the construction knowledge, negotiation track record, and genuine care to help you make the best possible decision.